Sunday Issues of the Week-August 25, 2024
Welcome optimism, but things can change . . .
A consensus on the outcome of the 2024 election is emerging among my friends—they all think Harris will win. I welcome optimism but have never trusted it. All too often, reality raises its head. That is why I am grateful the Democratic convention went so well and hopeful that things will continue to go well for Harris and Governor Walz, but I am not ready to call the election. Victory must be earned. You won’t catch me calling the election anytime soon. Speculating on the outcome rather than working for it is a mistake.
The 2024 election is entering a new phase. Fortunately for Harris, things are looking up. Just as references to Trump and Vance as “weird” were wearing out, RFK, Jr. quit his campaign and endorsed Trump in exchange for the promise of a job. That is weird. Trump now gets to be associated with the dead bear cub in Central Park and the rest of the RFK story.
Unfortunately for Harris, RFK, Jr.’s endorsement of Trump won’t win her the White House. Neither will “joy” or “likeability.” Fear and hatred of Trump will help, but she needs “policies.” She also needs Democrats to channel their enthusiasm into work supporting her campaign.
I was greeted on Saturday morning with a story in the weekend Wall Street Journal about how both presidential campaigns are “light on policy.” Trump, of course, is not light on policy if you tag him with Project 2025, but Trump disavows the Heritage Foundation plan, referring to it as “Project 25” and claiming to have never read it. (This later claim is credible and should be remembered as an example of an instance when Trump wasn’t lying).
To my surprise, Harris’ acceptance speech at the DNC is generally praised as “brilliant” by Democrats. I wasn’t offended by Harris’ detailed retelling of her story, but I wanted to hear about her vision for the future. What does she want to do for America? How are you going to pay for it? Harris’ speech was “light on policy.”
Pundits tell us that the remainder of the 2024 campaign will be light on policy. Unfortunately for policy wonks like myself, that means that the rest of the election will be about Trump calling Harris and Walz “communists” and Harris trying to pin Project 2025 and Trump’s weirdness on Trump.
Will either approach work for the candidates? Harris’ approach stands a better chance of working because Trump is getting weirder. But, more importantly, it is hard for the label of “communist” to stick to a candidate who refuses to talk in anything other than generalities.
Harris will face big tests in the coming weeks as the first presidential debate approaches. I expect a more disciplined Trump to show up—a Trump like the one Biden faced on June 27, 2024, a date that will go down as Biden’s Waterloo. Will Trump be able to pull it off? I doubt it. Trump is simmering with anger and likely will veer off from whatever script his advisors give him and attack Harris, likely calling her a Marxist and accusing her of attempting to destroy America.
Harris is an experienced prosecutor. She won’t be rattled. But will she be able to talk about anything other than Trump and his problems? We have not yet seen evidence of that.
Between now and September 10th, Harris must also prove she can handle press conferences and one-on-one interviews. I think she can, but expect the exuberance over Harris to diminish. Harris is a smart, articulate politician but not Michelle Obama.
What else is on the horizon?
I will be watching the Polaris Dawn space mission. What is that? It is a private mission involving a SpaceX capsule flying higher than any earth orbit mission since Gemini 11 in 1966. The four private astronauts will be exposed to heightened levels of radiation. They will also attempt the first private spacewalk in special suits designed by Space X.
The mission is likely to be successful, but if it goes wrong, the entire U.S. space program will suffer a setback. The two Boeing Starliner astronauts still await a ride home on the space station. On Saturday, NASA announced they will return home on a Space X capsule in February. What will happen if disaster strikes on the Polaris Dawn mission?
The economy
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut on Friday. The chairman’s speech sent the stock market soaring. I’ll be watching to see what happens this week. Happy days ahead are not guaranteed.
That’s it for now. Thank you for reading.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.