Sunday Issues-October 6, 2024
Election day is in 30 days. I'm worried.
Election Day is 30 days away. I’m worried. One of two bad things is likely to happen: Either Trump wins or Trump loses and throws America into a Constitutional and political crisis. I am heartened when I hear that friends and neighbors are ringing doorbells, making phone calls, and writing letters and cards supporting Harris, but keep hearing that “Kamala has lost her mojo” and “what do you mean the politics of joy?”
Polls suggest that Harris has won remarkable support among several key demographics, including women, people of color, and college educated people, but other polls, like those focusing on Georgia, show Trump ahead or within the margin of victory.
I may be imagining it, but the thrill of Harris’ campaign is gone. In thinking about last week, I can’t recall anything noteworthy that she said or did. That is worrisome. I hope I missed something.
I watched portions of Trump’s rally yesterday in Butler, Pennsylvania hoping to see the confused, sometimes incoherent Trump I expected. Trump had his moments, including a rant against transgender men competing in women’s sports, but stayed on script, aided with a teleprompter, for much of his hour-long speech. It is naïve to expect Trump to self-destruct. If the Democrats are going to win on November 5th, it will not be by default.
One of the reasons I watched Trump’s rally was a speech by Elon Musk. The SpaceX and Tesla founder sported a black MAGA hat as well as his familiar “Occupy Mars” t-shirt (he wears them so often I wonder how many he must own). Musk spoke briefly in the middle of Trump’s speech, praising Trump for “courage under fire” and claiming that if Trump loses, there will not be another election. (Curiously, Trump told an evangelical group a month ago that if he won, there won’t be another election). Musk’s message was for everyone to register to vote and encourage others to do so.
Musk is going through some sort of psychological crisis, most likely brought on by his growing realization that getting to Mars is more difficult than he assumed. I never expected Musk, despite his quirkiness to embrace Trump who, Musk must realize, is a business failure and world-class liar. Could it be that Trump, essentially, traded a promise to remove “government interference” with his Starship rocket developments in exchange for support?
There is no evidence that such a trade has occurred and if it did, and, depending on the details of a trade, might not be illegal. But Musk brings celebrity firepower to Trump. While many Americans are tired of him, others remain in awe of his cars and spaceships. That could help Trump with younger voters, especially males.
I am starting to watch polls more closely. As election day nears, there is less speculation inherent in them.
I also check daily for more October surprises. Jack Smith’s memorandum providing more damaging details documenting Trump’s efforts to overturn the last election was such a surprise. Surprisingly, it has quickly faded from the news. What other October surprises are there? I’m betting there will be at least one more.
This week say the new jobs report, showing 254,000 new jobs in September was released. Great news for Harris-Walz. Voters still trust him more on the economy than Harris, but the jobs report is evidence that the economy is not a disaster. That is why Trump is talking more about inflation and the border.
Port Strike Ends
Much to my surprise the Port Strike ended this week with an agreement. Had the strike persisted, it would have hurt Harris, especially after she expressed strong support for the strikers. Harris was lucky. Voters would have blamed President Biden—and Harris—had the strike disrupted supply chains. (I noticed a shortage of toilet paper when I was shopping last week).
Hurricane Milton
Hurricane Helene is still in the news. Over 200 deaths and dozens of people still missing. But now a second hurricane has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the result of high water temperatures. Southwest Florida will suffer massive rainfall and storm surges. Governor DeSantis has already declared a preemptive disaster.
Can we talk about Climate Change? Please.
Thank You.
That is it for today. Thank you for reading Sunday Issues. Special thanks to those of you who are subscribers.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.