Sunday Issues-November 3, 2024
Election fraud? Trump? Or something worse?
The shifting winds of election polling continue to blow. This weekend, the news was positive. Polls showed Harris slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And yesterday, a real shocker came out of Iowa—a Des Moines Register poll showed Harris up by four percent! If these polls are correct, Harris will win.
Or will she? Challenges to the election, legal and otherwise, are already underway. Republicans have already filed a suit alleging voter intimidation in Pennsylvania. More suits are following. We will see more than one hundred before next Sunday.
Republicans seem to know they will lose, or at least fear losing as a possibility, so they are claiming voter intimidation and other fraud.
Setting ballot drop-off boxes on fire is election interference, but some forms of interference are more subtle—and possibly not illegal. This morning, the New York Times ran a story suggesting that Republicans have gone beyond observing elections and are now putting people in voting sites to prove election fraud. That is intimidating election workers and, possibly, voters.
In Shasta County, California, “election observers,” permitted to monitor voting by law, sufficiently intimidated poll workers to prompt several of them to quit.
CalMatters reports:
On Wednesday, as the workers of the Shasta County Registrar of Voters office busily sifted through the ballots that have already been cast, they had company. A group of nine people, holding clipboards and taking notes, stood in a hallway peering through wired glass as workers took ballots out of envelopes. Across the hallway another group of observers hovered over computer screens, watching a live video feed of workers in a room verifying signatures. These self-appointed election observers spent their day looking for proof of tomfoolery.
The “observers” intimidated election workers because the poll workers did not like being watched closely. Some of the workers felt the “observers” were waiting for them to make a mistake or say something that could later be used as evidence of wrongdoing. Faced with this pressure, some quit.
It will be interesting if the California episode is repeated elsewhere.
Steve Bannon was released from jail; he’s back in the War Room.
Although there is fierce competition, the most dangerous member of Trump’s inner circle is Steve Bannon. Bannon served as Trump's “Chief Strategist” in his first term. He was jailed for refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena to testify on the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol.
Bannon got out of jail this week and returned to his podcast, War Room, to tell listeners that Democrats will attempt to steal the 2024 election. In part, Bannon said:
Every day after November 5 is going to be Stalingrad. If they can’t take it [the election] away from Trump, if they can’t nullify it right there, they want to at least delegitimize his victory. They will go to any length to stop President Trump. That’s the reality.
Watch for Bannon to call for political violence in the coming days, especially if Trump is shown to have lost by major media organizations. It is inconceivable that Trump will concede the election, regardless of the size of any Harris victory.
Encouraging news about the House and Lauren Boebert.
This weekend, the Cook Political Report and other poll watchers have provided encouraging news. Confidence is growing that the Democrats could retake the House of Representatives. The Cook Report says control of the House is still too close to call, but trends are favoring the Democrats.
One particular bit of good news. Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is no longer considered a sure winner for re-election. Her race in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District is now described as “leaning Republican” instead of “likely Republican.” Cross your fingers. I want to see Boebert gone.
Ted Cruz ahead.
More than a few friends have crossed their fingers, hoping for Ted Cruz’s defeat. Current polls suggest he is slightly ahead of challenger Colin Allred, which is unfortunate.
Alsobrooks is ahead in Maryland.
Republicans hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan could win a seat in the Senate. That now appears unlikely to happen. Alsobrooks is pulling away from Hogan—good news for Democrats.
I will not review other Senate or House races. Anyone wanting detailed, up-to-date information should go to the Cook Political Report or FiveThirtyEight.
Thank you.
I will be back later this week, if not earlier, with Dean’s Friday Insights, with much to say about the election. I hope you will join me. Also, special thanks to those who have subscribed to Dean’s Insights & Issues.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.