Sunday Issues-December 8, 2024
Syria liberated and the Trump administration takes shape.
While I was sleeping, Syria fell. Rebel forces, seriously underestimated by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, liberated Syria. The rebels’ victory was announced in the Syrian state-owned media. Bashar al-Assad has fled the country.
When my New York Times arrived this morning, I looked for the paper’s coverage of the rebels’ progress. I found it on page 17, titled, “Syrian Rebel Leader Says He’d Be Open to a Political Solution, Eventually.” The paper interviewed rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, head of Hayat Tahir-al-Sham, described as an Islamist group once linked to al-Queda. I confess to knowing next to nothing about them.
President-elect Trump reacted to the rebel’s victory with a post on his social media page. Trump’s tone reflects his confidence that he understands the rapidly changing world order. That is scary. Here’s the post:
The important takeaway here is the forcefulness of Trump’s declaration that America should not involve itself in this major change in the Middle East. Trump also takes the opportunity to advise Vladimir Putin on what to do and offers advice to Ukrainian President Zelensky.
The Trump administration.
No, I will not share my views on what went wrong, who is to blame, or anything else in the form of an autopsy of the 2024 election. It is water under the bridge, more than a month’s worth. A better subject is to discuss the transition and what we are learning about the second Trump administration.
Reports are now circulating that Elon Musk invested—that is the right word—A quarter billion dollars to support Trump’s election. For that money, Musk has gained remarkable access to Trump. It is not too much to describe Musk as the most influential member of Trump’s inner circle.
I wonder what Musk bought, or thought he bought, with his donations to Trump. Did Trump and Musk discuss waivers to environmental regulations, NASA contracts, or something to support X, formerly Twitter? We’ll likely never know whether such a conversation occurred, but it will be worth watching what Trump does to benefit Musk. I guess it will be a lot, worth more than $250 million.
More important than how Trump will benefit Musk is whether the Department on Government Efficiency (DOGE) will enjoy even modest success in its quest for two trillion dollars of savings. Press reports out this weekend suggest that 1200 authorized but unfunded programs have been identified for elimination. Unless one assumes that these programs would be funded if the authorizations were not allowed to expire or repealed by Congress, there are no savings from eliminating the 1200 programs. It will be interesting to see if Trump claims savings from simply continuing not to fund unfunded programs or to extend expired programs.
The Trump administration has not yet made any specific proposals for spending cuts but hopes to achieve major budget savings soon after Inauguration Day. Strict party loyalty will be essential with the GOP majority in the House of Representatives down to two seats. Nearly every legislator has a small herd of sacred cows, programs, or funding important to their State or district. Achieving two trillion dollars in budget cuts is impossible, but savings will be achieved. How much money will Trump “save?”
Hegseth and Gabbard.
There is not much new on these two troubled nominations. I continue to expect both to be defeated, but Hegseth appears to have picked up a couple of Senate votes, and Trump reiterated his support for the once-hard-drinking and partying right-winger. Importantly, Hegseth is now being vetted by the FBI. It will be interesting to see if the vetting makes a difference. Hegseth apparently expects it will.
More questions are being raised about Tulsi Gabbard, especially after former Gabbard staff accused her of regularly reading Russian propaganda. The odds of Gabbard being confirmed as Director of National Intelligence are decreasing.
Chaos?
Now that Trump has made dozens of nominations, any doubts that the new administration will be characterized by chaos have been eliminated. Much of that chaos will be caused by agency heads not understanding their jobs. Trump has set the stage for major mismanagement across the government. Expect Democrats to call foul very early in the administration. My guess is that at least one impeachment resolution against a Trump official or Trump himself will be filed by the end of February.
Other news.
One interesting news item this weekend related to race-based admissions at the U.S. Naval Academy. A Federal judge rejected arguments that the Naval Academy was subject to the same ban on using race-conscious admissions as other colleges and universities. The judge pointed to the unique status of the Naval Academy and other military service academies and indicated that these institutions have more discretion than other higher education institutions. That makes sense. The judge also pointed to the importance of diversity in the military's top ranks.
A podcast?
At a friend's suggestion, I am looking into doing a short weekly podcast. The podcast would initially supplement Friday Insights and Sunday Issues but could later replace at least one of the two weekly columns. If you have any thoughts on whether I should try a podcast or whether anyone is interested in it, I would welcome feedback.
Thank you.
That is it for today. Thank you for reading. And if you are a subscriber, thank you especially.
Great post, as always. As for the podcast question, GO FOR IT. The Substack platform makes it easy with audio only or video!