Friday Insights-October 25, 2024
Maybe it's best not to look at the polls and just vote.
My head is spinning after reading conflicting predictions about the election. Pollster Nate Silver sees movement towards Trump and has predicted Trump will win. Newsweek reports that the Silver Bulletin model shows Trump with a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote. Other experts, most notably American University Professor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted all but one presidential election correctly since 1984, are forecasting a Harris win.
Who’s right? I don’t know, but I am worried. I’ll wait for the votes to be tabulated, whenever that is.
For months, I have been predicting an October surprise. I was right, but I didn’t see the tsunami of shockers that we have seen in the last two weeks. The biggest shocker is the comments of former Trump Chief-of-Staff General John Kelly, reported by the New York Times. Kelly said Trump meets the definition of a fascist.
Are Kelly's comments the straw that will break the back of Trump’s effort to recapture the White House? I want to think so, but Trumpers don’t listen. Trump’s supporters have become immune to bad news about their leader, even when it comes from a source like General Kelly or is captured in video.
Other “October Surprises” are less dramatic than Kelly’s forceful condemnation of his former boss. Among them are Trump’s increasingly bizarre behavior and, of course, his focus on Arnold Palmer’s penis at an event in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.
An example of Trump’s deterioration are comments he made on Tuesday, October 22, attacking Kamala Harris for being lazy, a charge based on her “taking off,” meaning not holding daily campaign rallies:
Who the hell takes off?" Trump began. "We have 14 days left. And she'll take a couple of more days off too, you know why? She's lazy as hell and she's got that reputation. She's a radical left lunatic. She's further left than Bernie Sanders or Pocahontas. Now, Pocahontas, because I think, is Pocahontas, Rick, is Pocahontas further left than Bernie? Just about, right? It's close. It's close. Who the hell cares right? Rick says, 'Eh, I don't know.' But they're out there. But she's, but she's furthest left. We can't have a person, she's a Marxist. Her father's a Marxist professor, by the way. The fake news, look at all of them, where's the father? We should interview because I'd find it interesting to see what he has to say. I don't know, they seem to have a problem, but it would be nice to interview the father. He's a Marxist professor and I think that's okay. That’s good, fine. but I think it's appropriate that the father be interviewed by the fake news. They don't want to interview him, and I wonder why. If we had a real press in this country, this wouldn't even be a race. And I'm not sure it is a race anyway. They just came out with the Atlanta Constitution—
CNN was broadcasting Trump’s speech when he said this. Jim Acosta left the coverage after Trump descended into indecipherable gibberish.
In recent days, more people are commenting on Trump’s mental health. I’m not sure Trump’s stream-of-consciousness rants have any impact on MAGA voters.
On a more positive note, many of us have already voted, which is a positive sign for Harris. But it could also mean that Trumpers may have cast many votes before the worst of Trump’s rhetoric and some of the “October surprises.”
Other October Surprises:
What are some of the other “October Surprises.” One was the release of more details supporting the charges against Trump in the January 6 insurrection case in Washington, D.C. It is amazing how fast that “bombshell” news evaporated. The only person who seems to be thinking about it now is Donald Trump, who said yesterday that he would fire Jack Smith immediately upon becoming president.
One final surprise isn’t a surprise. Trump commented that convicted rapist Harvey Weinstein got “schlonged.” Here’s what Trump said:
Democrats don’t have to be honest, they really don’t have to be honest, because they will never be accused of anything. It’s interesting. I was so amazed that Harvey Weinstein got schlonged, he got hit as hard as you can get hit. Because he was sort of the king of the woke, right? And yet he got hit and I figured, maybe, he wouldn’t get hit so hard. “But boy — you don’t know him well, I don’t know him well, but I watched that and it was amazing. So when they do get hit, they get hit. But that’s the only one I can think of, normally they protect everybody.
Forget about Trump’s theory about Democrats. It is his “schlonged” comment that is notable. I was surprised Trump didn’t add, “And Harvey Weinstein did everything perfectly. He didn’t do anything wrong.”
Thank you.
Thanks for reading Friday Insights. In case I was too subtle, my insight is that America may be about to elect a rapidly deteriorating fascist President of the United States. That makes me sad. What makes me sadder is that if Trump wins, J.D. Vance may be president before January 1, 2026. Halloween is October 31st; I wonder if any “enemies within” are dressing up as Mr. Vance for trick or treating.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.