Friday Insights-November 8, 2024
Making sense of the Election Day surprise.
How did I get it wrong? A week ago, I confidently predicted that Kamala Harris would be the next president. I turned off my TV early on Election Day when it became clear I was wrong. Trump was getting more votes than anyone predicted. How could the pollsters have missed what is now called a “historic win?”
The answer to the last question, possibly, is that many Trump voters didn’t share their intention to vote for Trump with pollsters. I don’t blame them. Had I supported Trump, I would not have told anyone about it. I would have felt dirty, voting for a convicted felon, a rapist comfortable with Puerto Ricans being called “garbage,” talking about Arnold Palmer’s private parts, and planning to free the January 6 insurrectionists if he won.
Trump did win. And pundits (given my history of botching election outcomes, I exclude myself) are busy explaining why Harris lost. Very smart people point to the economy and retail prices. They are right. All of us have heard our neighbors and friends complain about the cost of groceries and much more. Intelligent people also were dissatisfied with President Biden’s border policy. When Biden dropped out of the race, the anger and frustration over Biden’s policies, some of which were valid, were transferred to Harris.
But what about Trump’s character, his mental decline, his felony convictions, and his threats of retribution against his enemies? I find it hard to believe Trump voters acquiesced in things I found disqualifying.
I don’t dispute that some voters chose Trump for “valid,” non-racist reasons, but I don’t forgive them for ignoring the rest of the Trump package. And why did they ignore the condemnations and warnings that Trump is unfit for the presidency coming from former Trump cabinet officers and political appointees? And then there was the lying.
Does Trump believe he won the 2020 election? If he does, he is dangerously delusional. If he doesn’t, he’s lied to all of us for four years.
Even when the presidency is won by a “decisive margin,” the motivations of some subset of voters put the winner over the top. In the case of Harris’ defeat, we must ask why she underperformed President Biden’s 2020 vote in so many states. One answer is that some Trump voters rejected Harris because she was female, Black, or of South Asian heritage.
Trump’s appeal to the worst in voters.
I know the adage: “All is fair in love and politics.” I suspect Trump lives by this “rule” in his personal and political lives. Let’s leave the sordid cesspool of Trump’s history of sexual assault aside and focus on how he conducted his 2024 campaign. He called Harris every slur he could think of and countenanced surrogates and allies going lower. When a speaker at Trump’s New York City rally effectively called Harris a prostitute, I blamed Trump.
Trump did everything possible to win the election. I fear (yes, I mean fear) that we will learn that promises were made to Elon Musk in exchange for his massive contributions in support of Trump in the campaign's closing months. Musk’s “investment” paid off. The day after the election, Musk’s Tesla stock soared. Can you guess why? And what motivated Washington Post and space exploration company Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos to kill an endorsement for Harris in the Post?
Justice?
Special Counsel Jack Smith plans to wrap up the remaining federal criminal charges against Trump relating to the January 6 insurrection. Thus, Trump, because he won the election, will not be held accountable for trying to hold on to power through what was effectively a coup. The MAGA team is celebrating its victory over “lawfare.” I suspect the Trump team is exploring whether pending State convictions in New York for business fraud and the civil judgment in the E. Jean Carroll case can also be disposed of on the grounds of being a distraction to the new president.
Trump has promised to pardon or otherwise release the January 6 insurrectionists, or at least most of them. Will they get an opportunity to march in the Inauguration Day parade?
It is part of the tragedy of the 2024 election that Trump gets to erase his criminal convictions and those of criminals who stormed the Capitol at Trump’s direction. How do you explain the concept of equal justice under the law to a child asking why Trump was convicted of crimes and escaped accountability?
Moving forward.
Trump’s plans for his new administration are moving forward. His chief of staff was announced Thursday, Susie Wiles, who co-chaired his campaign. We’ve already heard that Robert Kennedy, Jr., will address corruption in the pharmaceutical industry, get fluoride out of drinking water, and reform NIH and FDA. Nominees for top cabinet-level positions could be announced in days. How about Marjorie Taylor Green as Secretary of HHS?
I expect the first days of the Trump administration will be dark ones. Will the round-up of undocumented migrants begin on January 20, 2025? How long will it take until Vladimir Putin is finally given the win in Ukraine that he has sought for two years? Trump will give it to him with a ribbon attached. Recall that he has promised to end the conflict before taking office.
Maybe if we prepare for four years of ineptitude, corruption, lying, and greed, the next years won’t be as painful as appears likely.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.