Friday Insights-November 1, 2024
A mess of an election, but Harris will win.
Many friends are anxious about next week’s election, expecting the worst. They are right to be worried. This election is a mess, and the worst may be yet to come. As the remaining minutes of campaigning tick away, ballot drop-off boxes have been set on fire in two states, the Trump campaign has filed a lawsuit alleging voter intimidation in Pennsylvania, and Trump again campaigned in a black and yellow MAGA cap—the colors of the Proud Boys.
I did not spend time this week perusing Portuguese real estate ads. If Trump wins, I won’t be going to Portugal or anywhere else, but I will tone down my writing. I believe Trump when he talks about retribution against “the enemy within,” but more worried about Trump’s followers than about Trump. If Trump wins, he will be too busy “fixing” the Department of Justice and getting his criminal cases dismissed to focus on silencing his critics.
Harris will win the election. It will be close, and the final results will not be known for some time. Recounts will be demanded, dozens of legal challenges will be filed, and, unfortunately, more political violence is possible. I hope I am wrong about the violence.
My projection is not based on a close analysis of the polls or anything else. It is based on a gut belief that as people vote, fear of Trump will cost him the votes of many undecided people. One analysis of voting I saw early this morning confirms my belief that many voters are anxious to show Trump the door. An article in the Washington Post read:
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News, and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her [Harris’] leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
Arizona: 9-12 points
Georgia: 7-10 points
Michigan: 26-39 points
North Carolina: 2-6 points
Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
Wisconsin: 22-60 points
I believe that when the 2024 election is long over, Harris’ win will be attributed to women soundly rejecting Trump because of his position on reproductive rights, history of sexual assault, and misogyny. Those votes will outweigh the votes Trump will win on the border security issue.
I will not watch the election returns on Tuesday night.
If I were younger, I would be tempted to watch Steve Kornacki analyze the votes as they trickled in. His analyses are insightful and entertaining. He will address what issues were most important to voters, but I wonder if the data NBC will get to give to Kornacki will be truthful.
Much of the vote against Harris will not based on policy disagreements but on something far darker. She has lost votes because of race and gender. This is not to say there are no less offensive reasons to vote against her. Many people believe Trump will be better for the economy and want tighter border security without being racist. But many others don’t like Harris’ laugh or looks, are more interested in her sexual history than in her housing proposal, or hate everything about California, Harris’ home state.
Hopefully, when the election results are known, Harris will be president-elect.
Vivek supporting Trump.
I close with a bit of humor—not my own, but Vivek Ramaswamy’s. He also donned a garbageman’s vest to support Trump, but, unlike Trump, he got into an active garbage truck and worked a shift.
Ramaswamy’s political career is not over. In donning the vest, I suspect he was auditioning for a job in the next Trump administration and expects to fill Trump’s shoes as the leader of MAGA once The Orange Menace is no longer with us.
Thank you.
Thanks for reading Dean’s Friday Insights. I will be back on Sunday with Sunday Issues. I haven’t written that yet, but I expect it will be about the election. . . .
Have a good weekend. And if you have not already voted, please vote.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.