Friday Insights-January 3, 2025
The 119th Congress convenes with uncertainty
The New Year is here, but will it be a happy one? I see political turmoil, natural disasters (if you can call hurricanes caused by climate change natural disasters), and other troubling things ahead. I hope I’m wrong.
Speaker Johnson.
The House and Senate return to session today as the 119th Congress convenes. Sometime after noon, the House will vote to elect a speaker. As of this morning, it is unclear whether Speaker Mike Johnson has sufficient votes to retain his job. His chance is described as “shaky.”
House Speaker Johnson’s future became a bit brighter this week when President-Elect Trump endorsed him. Trump, or, I should say, President Musk, was not happy with how Johnson managed the government funding crisis last month but had no choice but to endorse Johnson. If Johnson loses today’s votes, the House will be in a crisis reminiscent of the 2023 Kevin McCarthy Speaker debacle.
There is no obvious alternative to Johnson. That could create a crisis for Trump. Without a Speaker, the House cannot certify the results of the 2024 election on January 6. (Without a speaker, legislators elected to the House cannot be sworn into office and thus could not cast a vote to certify the election.)
My guess is that Johnson will be approved today, but only at the cost of making commitments to Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) and other far-right Republicans. We don’t know what those commitments will be, but they will likely involve not cooperating with Democrats to secure the passage of legislation and placing tighter restrictions on spending.
Importantly, House rules for the 119th Congress proposed by Speaker Johnson and to be voted on today include a provision that makes it less likely Speaker Johnson will be removed from his leadership post. The rule provision reads: “A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of the Speaker shall not be privileged except if it is offered by a member of the majority party and has accumulated eight co-sponsors from the majority party at the time it is offered.” This means that Republicans angry with Johnson for supporting a compromise to avoid a government shutdown must find at least eight cosponsors to prevent the resolution from being denied a vote.
Johnson presumably believes the risk of removal is now minimal. We’ll see.
Trump to attend President Carter’s funeral.
Earlier this week, President-Elect Trump announced he will attend Jimmy Carter’s funeral on January 9. I wrote an editorial for Spy Community Newspapers that read, in part:
I wish the Carter family would respond by saying, “Thanks, but no thanks,” given the abuse Trump heaped on Carter in the last dozen years.
I read one of President-Elect Trump’s social media posts made shortly after Jimmy Carter died last week, the post that referenced the “exclusive club” of people who have served as president. I found the suggestion that, as a former and future president, somehow made him able to understand the demands of the presidency offensive. Trump is presumptuous in granting himself admission to the “exclusive club” of presidents. He is not a typical or, in my view, a legitimate president. He lost the right to grant himself membership on January 6, 2021.
Why does Trump want to attend the funeral of a man he often ridiculed? The answer is that Trump is working on his legacy. He wants to normalize his presidency by acting like a normal president. Trump will never be viewed as a “normal” president. His role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection is an indelible stain. Period.
New Orleans and an exploding Cybertruck in Las Vegas.
What should we make of this week’s two acts of terrorism? I’m still trying to figure it out. I worry that once Trump is in office, other troubled people will turn to violence to express opposition to Trump’s policies or to silence Trump’s enemies. I hope I’m wrong.
Thank you.
Things will be busy in Washington this month. My fingers are crossed that the Senate will reject Trump’s worst nominees (Gabbard, Hegseth, Patel, and Kennedy, in that order). I expect to be disappointed.
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