Friday Insights for September 27, 2024
Things got so discouraging earlier this week that I took a walk to clear my head. I was rewarded with a butterfly.
It was a discouraging week. New York City’s mayor, Eric Adams, was indicted this week, and Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States. Republicans are becoming more outspoken in their reluctance to support Ukraine. Israel stepped up its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and appears to be planning a ground invasion. The House passed a short-term funding bill, keeping the government running until December 20, but 83 Republicans voted against it.
Polling this week continues to indicate that Donald Trump could yet be returned to the White House. This is enough to make you want to take a walk to clear your head, so I did.
On Thursday afternoon, I loaded up my Goldendoodle into the back seat of my car and drove to a park. As I walked around the path, I wondered what new information was in Jack Smith’s180-page brief filed in Federal District Court, including new evidence Trump in the January 6 insurrection case. I assume the brief includes more damning information against Trump, but we won’t know what that information is because the version of the brief that will be released (hopefully) to the public will be heavily redacted.
I worry that Smith’s actions will reignite MAGA outrage against the prosecution of Trump. I imagined Trump supporters redoubling their efforts to get him elected as their anger exploded at Jack Smith,” the demented prosecutor” who Trump would prefer to be rounding up migrants to toss into jail before mass deportation.
I reflected on a report that an appeals court panel may reduce the $489 million plus judgment against Trump in the New York civil case involving fraudulent valuations of real estate assets. It is likely the panel will reduce the judgment. Trump will cite the reduction as evidence that the entire case was “lawfare” and remind his followers that he is being victimized by Democrats.
I also briefly thought about Mayor Eric Adams. What was he doing with Türkiye? What did Türkiye want from him? I was amused that AOC demanded Adams' resignation before she even read the indictment. Few of us would have done that, but AOC wanted to be first.
My guess is that the indictment will have no impact on the 2024 presidential election. Why would it? I don’t plan to invest time to try to understand why Adams did what he allegedly did and how many other people were involved. I feel sorry for the people of New York City. They deserve an honest mayor. I hope Governor Hochul removes him from office. I think she will.
As I continued my walk, I also thought about Hurricane Helene. The storm is additional evidence of global climate change. I wonder why there isn’t a greater sense of urgency to do more before it is too late. A friend of mine commented the other day that Americans won’t get serious—really serious—about climate change until a truly massive storm kills hundreds of people. I hope Helene is not it.
As my dog and I neared the end of our loop, I saw a beautiful butterfly feeding on what I thought was goldenrod. I dismissed my thoughts about politics, crime, and storms, pulled out my iPhone, and took a few pictures. The experience reminded me that despite the threats that Trump and climate change pose to civilization, beauty still exists. In the coming months, it may be important to remember that.
So, what are my insights for the week:
First, despite the hope of many, the presidential race will be close. And, to make things worse, I fear there may yet be an October surprise.
Second, I worry about the escalation of the war in Ukraine. It is excellent that Kamala Harris expresses unambiguous support for Ukraine, but I worry about Trump. I suspect he may be in contact with Putin and assuring him that, if elected, he will cut Zelensky off at the knees. I hope I am wrong about Trump, but my fears are based on Trump’s words.
Third, I will continue to try to imagine a way to end the rapidly expanding violence in the Middle East. I haven’t found one yet.
Fourth, as I noted above, the new Jack Smith brief in the January 6 case against Trump is a two-edged sword. In the long run, the filing may increase the possibility that Trump is held accountable for actions taken in support of the January 6 insurrection, but it could also help Trump. If left up to me, I would have delayed filing a new indictment until after election day.
Finally, I remain disgusted with Republican stewardship of the House of Representatives. While it is a relief that a short-term funding bill was passed, I’m tired of Republicans obstructing the work of Congress.
A Butterfly,
The photo of the Monarch Butterfly I encountered on Thursday is at the top of this story. I prefer it to another photo of Trump looking stupid or Harris giving a speech.
Thank You.
© 2024 John Dean, all rights reserved.